Archive for September 2010

What is one to make of the Tea Party?

September 19, 2010

What is one to make of the Tea Party? Where does it fall on the left/right, or liberal/conservative line that separates our national political parties? And how does the Tea Party affect the division into Red and Blue states that we have become accustomed to see on the electoral map?

To grasp the meaning of the Tea Party we need to understand political parties (of which the Tea Party may now be one) for what they are, — associations of  somewhat like minded voters, held loosely together by shared views on one or more single issues, such as taxation, health care, global warming, national defense, immigration, or education.

But political parties, representing differences of opinion at one level, do not affect the ability and readiness of all Americans to come together at other and much deeper levels, such as when joined together as one under the threat from Japan and Germany during World War II, from the Soviets during the Cold War, and at the present time from the Al-Qaeda terrorists armed principally with their WMD,  a seemingly inexhaustible supply of suicide bombers.

I would point out also that political parties have life and vibrancy only in democracies. In fact political parties, representing as they do the people who are governed, may be the single most distinctive feature of a democracy, any democracy.

The claims of nations without parties to be democracies, such as the claims of the so-called Peoples’ Republics of the Cold War Era, as well as of China, Cuba, North Korea and their like today, are simply not believable.

In any case we needn’t at all be distraught by the appearance of the Tea Party. In fact nothing is more American than that one, or similar groups of people, looking beyond the established channels for representation.

In fact, nothing is more normal. The Tea Party is just one apple fallen from the tree of democracy that is America. What should surprise us is that there are not more of these apples, all the time, falling to the political ground.

To understand the Tea Party, as well as political parties in general in America, the left/right line, dating from the way delegates at the National Assembly during the French Revolution were seated —supporters of the king to the president’s right and supporters of the revolution to his left— will no longer do. Left/right and their alter egos liberal/conservative need to be replaced.

By what? In what follows I make use of science writer Timothy Ferris’ analysis of political positions in his book, The Science of Liberty.

In the second chapter of his book, Science and Liberalism, Ferris shelves the single dimensional line and introduces the two dimensional triangle, labeling the three points liberal, conservative, and progressive.

And while using his image I’ll take it even further than he does because I see it as something, unlike the line whose ends never meet, that holds us all together in one single shape. This is one triangle and we are one people, and even when we cluster at different points of the triangle we are still mostly and fundamentally together.

Also I would even make the comparison of the three points to the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, all of which are equally necessary for the proper functioning of our government.

For these three points represent the three fundamental positions of the people in our democracy, in any democracy, all probably necessary for the proper functioning of the electorate. And these three political positions have always been there, no less in the time of the Federalist Hamilton and the Democratic-Republican Jefferson than in our own time of Red and Blue states and of the Republican McCain and the Democrat Obama.

But they’ve been there kind of pell-mell, not clearly distinguished and acknowledged through the chatter and the shouting of the political classes.

The liberal/conservative line didn’t fully represent let alone express the different views that were and are held by the people, and hence recently the large numbers of so-called Independents, as right now when these latter outnumber the Republicans. And hence the often tried and up until now failed Third party initiatives. The fate of the Tea Party in this regard is sill unknown.

It’s true that at present in regard to our political parties, or more importantly in regard to the political opinions of the electorate, confusion does reign. People are all over the political map, desperate for something on which to hang their political hat, and are hanging it anywhere and everywhere.

The three points of Ferris’ triangle bring some much needed clarity to the political opinion arena. The principles and opinions of the electorate may all be understood as some combination of  the liberal, conservative and progressive positions represented on the triangle.

Now it is my own view that all three positions ought to be recognized and legitimated by the government. Parties also need to recognize how much they have in common, not always be squabbling over the things that separate them. Also a party that limits itself narrowly to just one of the three positions will always be a minority party, and may even become irrelevant, as has happened in the past when single issue or single position parties have died.

By the way, I should point out, as Ferris himself does in his book, and as countless others have done before him, that the traditional meaning of the word liberal (now classical liberal is used instead) and stemming from the thinking of Hobbes, Locke, and the American founders, and fostering individual rights and freedoms, has undergone a sea change, coming to mean today the promotion of big government and big government programs.

The loss of the original meaning of the word liberal is tragic, and probably nothing can be done to change this. But the proper word to apply to a strong, active government is not liberal but progressive. To be progressive, “liberal” only in current usage, is to be behind government programs and initiatives directed to help those not able to provide sufficiently for themselves, which more and more under our recent presidents seems to mean nearly everyone.

Of course there will always be large numbers of those in need of help, the poor, the sick, the incapacitated for one reason or another, and democratic governments, our government, will have to some extent provide for them. And to this extent that we go along with this we are all progressives.

But governments should be no less interested in promoting the tenets of classical liberalism, in protecting individual rights and freedoms including the right to own property. And as much as possible they should stay out of peoples’ ways, not interfere by excessive regulations or otherwise, with individuals who are pursuing their own ends without bringing harm to others while doing so. And in fact this kind of government may come closest to being what we mean by liberal democracy.

And the third point on the triangle, the conservative position, is no less necessary than the other two to the proper functioning of a democracy. Culture and traditions, such things as equality under the law, protection of property rights, the free market, the best of what we have inherited from our forbears, all of this has to be properly recognized and protected. No legitimate democratic government can stand by while this inheritance is trampled on or just overlooked and thereby neglected.

So you might ask, should there be just three political parties, representing the liberals, progressives, and conservatives among us? Well yes and no. No, because just as governments have to represent all three positions, because all three is what we are, parties too cannot neglect anyone of the three without risk of being irrelevant.

Parties do become known as being more of the one than the other —Democrats as being progressive, promoting equality, Republicans as conservative, promoting freedom. And new parties, or more often new movements within a party, are always springing up as one or more of our three pillars is seen as being neglected — libertarians being most heard from when freedoms are most in danger, socialists being most heard when income inequalities are most pronounced.

The Tea Party, seeing in the present size and expansion of the Federal government a trampling of individual freedoms, steps up to defend these freedoms. Not too different from the anti-Federalists confronting Alexander Hamilton’s rapid expansion of Federalism in early America.

The Democrats have in my experience been the promoters of government as the protector of last resort of those at the bottom in regard to power and wealth. Republicans again from my own experience, seem to have been fluctuating between classical liberalism and conservatism. At least when at their best. This was not true of them during the reign of George W. Bush when they seemed to be without first principles.

So far the Tea Partiers are not so easily placed at one of the three points of our triangle. They are rather, and most of all an anti-party, and especially an anti-government party, and that’s why it’s been so hard to pin them down. It’s more what they’re against than what they’re for.

Finally, I’m left with the thought that the differences between the parties, and between us the governed, are not all that important. No one is promoting, say, a time when there was no national bank, no national defense, no national social security, nor even no national health care or Medicare for the aged.

And no one is for taking away our freedoms, freedom of movement, thought, and expression. And no one is saying that, those at the bottom, should be ignored and left to fend for themselves.

The differences ultimately among us are differences of style and not of substance. And that’s a good thing. It’s hope for the future. And for all of us, probably in our own lifetimes, we have experienced a closeness to each one of the three, liberal, conservative, and progressive, points on the triangle.

It would help us, and our country, if in our electoral campaigns, and in our candidate debates, we would recognize the legitimacy of the other points of view. Because what we’re really doing in spite of appearances that seem to show one against the other is fine turning our democracy, questioning the underlying classical liberal, conservative and progressive principles on which it is based and which we share even if not in the same proportions.

Deficits and War

September 7, 2010

What is one to make of the current and widely shared handwringing over our growing Federal debt? As of today total public (national government) debt is close to $13.5 trillion, or some 96% of the 14 trillion dollar value of all goods and services produced in 2009.

What is one to make of this? If the country’s indebtedness were to remain at today’s level and no longer grow, that would still mean some $500 billion in annual interest payments, monies taken directly from American tax payers and transferred to the holders, mostly Chinese and Japanese citizens, of U.S. Treasuries.

But our debt is hardly stationary. Just last year alone the federal government with revenues of $2.1 trillion spent nearly twice that amount, $3.5 trillion, adding 1.4 trillion to the deficit.

The Obama government is projecting a similar amount of additional debt for 2010, while projecting a growth in interest payments on the debt to nearly $900 billion by the end of the decade.

In an article, America in the Red, from National Affairs of Spring, 2010, Donald Marron writes:

“These [deficit] figures are alarming, but they pale in comparison to budget projections for the years ahead. Recent numbers from the Obama administration show that if current policies were to remain in place, deficits would average more than $1 trillion annually for the next ten years, amounting to more than 5% of GDP…. By 2020, the United States would owe more than $20 trillion, the equivalent of about 85% of GDP. At that point, interest payments alone would consume about $900 billion a year…

“The outlook grows even more bleak when we account for the ongoing retirement of the Baby Boomers and further increases in public spending on health care. According to the Congressional Budget Office, spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security is on track to grow from about 10% of GDP today to about 16% in 2035. At the same time, the aging of the population means that the labor force — and, therefore, tax revenues — will grow more slowly in the future.

“The twin pressures of increased entitlement spending and slowing revenue growth mean that the debt will skyrocket — to roughly 200% of GDP in 2035, under one CBO scenario — unless there are dramatic cutbacks in all other government activities or an equally dramatic increase in taxes.”

Marron goes on to point out that there is no one solution to the problem. Many actions will be necessary. Yes we will need additional economic growth to grow Federal tax revenues. Yes, we will need tax increases, most likely on the middle class and probably on consumption in the form of a VAT.

And yes, we will need spending reductions, that which would mean reductions in defense budgets, social security reimbursements, and medicare and medicaid payments —all three of which will be vigorously opposed by the impacted beneficiaries, making it highly doubtful that these actions will ever be taken.

Those who think about these things, and who write about them with the most clarity and understanding, are not usually elected office holders or members of the Obama administration. (Marron was acting director of the Congressional Budget Office in 2006.)

For our elected leaders to seriously address the problem of the deficit, and get behind any one or more of the necessary and painful measures that would be needed to correct unsustainable trends, would probably mean their not being reelected and returned to office.

So what are we to make of all this? What is to be done? The “solution” now seems to be to go on doing little or nothing, for if we do nothing the problem may go away. In earlier periods we have similarly overspent our means, in war and in depression, rung up deficits comparable to those of today, but always that debt was owed to ourselves. Now it’s different, we owe trillions to the Chinese and other foreign bond holders, and what this means we really don’t know.

Now there is another point of view regarding all this, that of Paul Krugman, for example, who shows little interest in deficit handwringing. He is even ready to increase the deficit still further. In an article, 1938 in 2010, in today’s Times he maintains that the Obama administration is clearly being too timid in its actions to revive the economy.

What is needed, he says, is a second, and even larger stimulus. For Krugman, and many on the Left, many Liberals and many Progressives, unemployment, not deficits, is the country’s principal problem, and only additional Federal spending bringing additional jobs will grow the country’s wealth, thereby forestalling a second depression and lowering the unemployment numbers.

While not wishing the deficit away, or pretending that it doesn’t exist, Krugman does seem to be one of those who would rely entirely on new growth (OK, he would also restore the higher tax rates on the rich) to reduce the deficit.

In support of his position he cites the depression of the 1930s and how it finally, after some 10 years, came to an end. World War II, as he reminds us, coming as it did to a still widely depressed economy, was above all a much needed, and additional burst of deficit-financed government spending.

I would point out, as an aside, that Krugman does not mention the role, if any, of the present wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, how they are contributing to the growth of our economy and the ending of the present depression. They’re not of course. What happened this time around?

But in respect to W W II Krugman was right. Over the course of the War the Roosevelt government borrowed the equivalent of what would be roughly $30 trillion today creating thereby an economic boom and laying the foundation for future prosperity.

(The present wars do obviously benefit portions of our economy, mostly the military/industrial complex that makes the drones, armored vehicles, shoulder fired missiles and innumerable other such.)

Krugman says that thanks to the resulting additional economic growth the overall debt during WWII, both public and private, actually fell as a percentage of GDP. And that after the War increased government tax revenues enabled the economy to thrive without continuing deficits.

So what is the answer? Deficit reduction as Marron describes it, meaning growing government revenues through new growth initiatives and new income and consumption taxes, along with substantial reductions in defense and social services spending?

Or is it additional stimulus money as Krugman recommends? Can we spend our way out of recession, and by doing so, as in World War II, bring down unemployment to Bill Clinton levels of 4 to 5%, and long term sustainable debt, again to Bill Clinton levels, of some 40% of GDP?

So far no one seems to have the country’s answer, and hence the handwringing goes on apace.

The Khan Academy, “particularly for motivated students”

September 3, 2010

What brings Bill Gates and me together? Well not Harvard. He didn’t finish and has an honorary degree. I did and don’t.  And certainly not membership in the Billionaires Club, where he’s a member and I’m not. What brings us together is our admiration for Salman Khan and the Khan Academy, evidently the most popular education site on the Web.

The Academy, with Khan as the only teacher, offers in the form of YouTube videos some 2000, but constantly growing in number, 10 minute long, mostly math and science tutorials that are currently watched daily by some 100,000, but also constantly growing in number, viewers, —Bill Gates and his children, myself and my grandson, among them.

A recent Fortune Magazine article, entitled Innovation in Education, has this to say about Khan’s Academy:

His low-tech, conversational tutorials – Khan’s face never appears, and viewers see only his unadorned step-by-step doodles and diagrams on an electronic blackboard – are more than merely another example of viral media distributed at negligible cost to the universe. Khan Academy holds the promise of a virtual school: an educational transformation that de-emphasizes classrooms, campus and administrative infrastructure, and even brand-name instructors.

From within the article there is a point that I’d like to emphasize, not something just about these extraordinary Khan learning videos but about education in general, a point that is too often neglected by educators, as well as reformers.

The writer of the article says that Khan of course has his detractors, for example those who question the real impact of any tutorial that doesn’t test performance or allow student-teacher discussion.

Now it’s interesting that most educational reform is now taken up by improving performance testing, in regard to both teacher and student, and that most both traditional, as well as progressive and liberal thinking about our schools, is no less taken up, as always, by the importance of student-teacher interaction and discussion.

So given the situation where, at the Khan Academy, the two dominant educational movements or philosophies (performance testing and student-teacher interaction) are completely absent what is there left to substantiate and account for the success of the 10 minute tutorials, consisting of only Khan himself seated in his own home and the viewer and listener seated before a computer screen at usually great distance from Khan in his study-closet in Silicon Valley?

The answer, the secret of the Academy’s success, is also in the article, although it comes in the words of a Khan detractor, Jeffrey Leeds, president of Leeds Equity Partners, the largest U.S. private equity firm specializing in for-profit education. According to Leeds the Academy is “a solid supplemental resource, particularly for motivated students,… but it’s not an academy — it’s more of a library.”

A free “library,” or, better, resource, for motivated students, that for me is exactly what makes the Academy great. Yes it is for motivated students, certainly for Bill Gates and myself, and perhaps for our children and grandchildren. And this is the way it should be. All learning situations should be set up primarily for motivated students, because only these will learn.

The tragic failure up until now of our public school system, not to mention any number of other so-called educational environments, is that they are not primarily set up for the motivated student, but instead are set up, or rather taken up fruitlessly with unmotivated learners, probably the majority of kids attending our schools today. And these students stay clear, of course, of the Khan Academy.

The level of education and the unemployment rate

September 2, 2010

How many times have you read such as the following, or something similar?

“Consider how the unemployment rate varies by education level: it’s more than 14 percent for those without a high school degree, under 10 percent for those with one, only about 5 percent for those with a college degree and even lower for those with advanced degrees.”

These words were Laura Tyson’s, taken from her op ed piece, Why We Need a Second Stimulus, in the Times of August 28th.

People read this (or in Tyson’s case write this) and conclude, not unreasonably, that as more and more Americans earn advanced degrees, —high school, college, or higher, — the unemployment rate will correspondingly fall. More and more conclude that not enough education is what it’s all about.

It is a fact that high school graduation rates have been stuck, for a generation or more, fluctuating a few percentage points above and below 75%, placing us internationally among developed nations at about the 15th position, and in a similar position in regard to graduation from college.

We’re all looking to lower our current unemployment rate of 9.5% representing nearly 15 million people out of work and looking for work. Is the answer, as Tyson and many pundits would have it, to raise our high school, college, and higher ed graduation rates, given that among these groups unemployment rates are much lower?

I would look at the situation differently and say that the unemployment rate reflects, not the failure of large numbers of kids to graduate from school and college, but our failure to provide viable alternatives to school and college for all those kids, probably many more than and not restricted to the 9.5% unemployed, for whom school as preparation for college is not appropriate.

This is something, however, that political correctness does not enable us to address and discuss. Higher education, including a college preparatory high school, not appropriate, and especially not appropriate for my child? Who wants to hear this about their child, and what politician wants to say this to a constituent and voter?

This is why we go on pretending that college preparatory school programs are appropriate for all children, because that’s what the parents and voters want to hear. The inevitable result of our doing this means that many, probably many more than the some 30% who regularly drop out of high school (50% in the large, inner city systems), find themselves all grown-up but not in possession of the training and knowledge that might have landed them a good job.

No wonder that at this point in their lives, and with or without a high school diploma or the equivalent, the problems begin for so many of our young people. Unemployment rates for the young, often minority adults in our largest cities, are well over the 20% level, well over twice the rate for adults in general. For too many of these young people have learned little or nothing useful to them and their future while in school.

For them school ought to have been a time when they could find out about themselves, about who they were, what they could do, what they were most interested in and wanted to do, about their strengths and weaknesses etc. Instead school was (and still is) not that. Instead school has become a kind of “race to the top,” that which means that many don’t make it, falling down somewhere along the way.

The irony is that while there is no shortage of work that needs to be done, in fact probably much more work out there than there are available workers to do it, many are told that there is no work for them. Why? Because they have failed to acquire, in school or elsewhere, those good “work” habits and skills that might have guaranteed them a job, and instead have only learned that they’re not very good at those things that society, mistakenly, seems to value most, or at least put the most monetary value on.

In regard to the education of our young how might we correct the terrible mistakes of the past and present? How might we prepare our young people, and not just the particularly gifted and talented ones, for doing with interest and satisfaction and delight any number of the real jobs that are out there and by and large go undone?

We blame the present unemployment situation on the precipitously declining number of manufacturing jobs in the country, as these jobs are transferred to other countries where labor costs are much lower. But the service and maintenance industries in our own country could expand exponentially, promising for those prepared many more jobs than the jobs lost in manufacturing.

But instead of preparing, and, yes, training, our young people for work in these industries —think of education, health care, infrastructure — building, road, rail, and bridge maintenance, home services and repair etc. — we go pushing all of our young people to stay too long in college preparatory school tracks in which they’re not interested and for which they’re not suitable (in spite of Jaime Escalante’s example at Garfield High School in East Los Angeles), while what we’re really doing is introducing them to failure before they’ve even begun.

So what would it take to change our schools? What would it take to provide the appropriate learning and training for kids, probably the majority of them, who should not be going on to 4 year colleges? For now too many of them with our encouragement do go on to college and if they finish (most don’t) account for the present spate of devalued college diplomas.

There are solutions out there. I think of Germany where kids in high school will, with on-the-job training, learn a trade, and I think of our own past, of a time, prior to Horace Mann’s common school (representing, by the way, a colossal misreading of the educational needs of the country), when kids probably made good use of school as a place to learn a skill needed for a trade, or perhaps even to acquire the knowledge needed for higher education. A much earlier time when school was useful and appropriate, not yet a Procrustean bed on which kids were expected to lie down together grouped by age for 10 or more years regardless of the fit.


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